Top Sports Betting Tips and Sportsbook Strategy

This article on sports betting tips contains general advice for those just getting into sports betting strategy. For an experienced gambler some of the information here might seem obvious, but we hope that even if this is the case, you’ll walk away from this content having found a few gems.

Sports Betting Tip #1 – Only make +EV wagers

All experienced gamblers are familiar with positive expectation. To put this simply: if we flip coins (heads or tails) and I pay you $1.05 every time the flip comes heads and require you give me $1.00 every time it comes tails, over the long run you’d be making 5 cents 50% of the time. You’re said to have 2.5 cents (or 2.5%) positive expectation (+EV) where I have 2.5 cent negative expectation (-EV).

In sports betting, generally bookies always have +EV as most sell bets at premium. For example: If Jets are +4.5 -110 and the Pats are -4.5 -110, you’ll need to risk $1.10 for each dollar of potential win no matter which side you choose. This is called -110 pricing.

One might assume a bookie selling at -110 has 10% +EV all the time, but generally this is not true. To give an extreme example: perhaps in the previous example the line was once Pats -3 (true line) but 85% of the bets placed on the game were on the Pats, so the sportsbooks then needed to move the line to offset risk, and this is the reason it is now -4.5. Well, under this example, even though $1.10 risked is required for each potential $1.00 win, the Jets +4.5 likely is +EV. Now on a typical game it’s often not going to be so clear cut, because the bookmaker might in fact have +EV on both sides, but it is certainly not even. Perhaps they have 2% EV on one team and 18% on the other, rather than 10% / 10%.

The important thing to remember is that you can only win long term by placing +EV wagers. Read our other sports betting tips for advice on how to find +EV wagers.

Sports Betting Tip #2 – Line Shopping is Vital

When betting sports, it is vitally important to always shop for the best line. For example, if you’ve determined the Colts -4 is +EV at -110, based on the first sports book you’ve looked, you’ll get additional +EV when shopping further. For example Bet Phoenix offers many NFL wagers at -105 pricing, so you might find the Colts -4 -105, which will get you additional EV.

Keep in mind that winning sports betting is not about luck, not over the long haul anyways. In the end, averages catch up, and every dollar of +EV is a dollar gained, and every dollar of –EV is a dollar lost. For this reason, you’ll want to have accounts at many sportsbooks and then shop for the best lines possible.

Sports Betting Tip #3 – Basketball 1 Point Rule

There are several football betting professionals, and less but still plenty of baseball pros, who work one season per year on sports betting. Our tip is this: if you understand betting other sports profitably, then the same dynamics can be used to bet basketball. Here, if you routinely find lines one point or better than the consensus, it will be almost impossible to lose long term.

Sports Betting Tip #4 NCAA Basketball Ranked Underdog vs Non Ranked Favorite

Square sports bettors often drool over the opportunity to bet a team ranked in the top 25 when they are an underdog against a non ranked team. Bookies know this and are still willing to take the action. In these spots we want to be on the same side as the bookie, and never on the same side as the square. In such spots, this is a near automatic “system bet” on the non ranked favorite.

Sports Betting Tip #5 Basic Strategy NFL Teasers

Generally speaking, a teaser is a sucker bet. There is one exception though: this is teasing home favorites of -7.5 to -8.5 and all underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 together in two team 6 point teasers at -110 pricing or better. If there are three or more NFL lines in a given week with these same odds, then a good idea is to round robin them all. For more on this topic, Google search “Basic Strategy NFL Teasers”.

Sports Betting Tip #6 Take Advantage of Bonuses

Bonuses are, very much so, free money to serious sports bettors. When joining a sportsbook, you’ll want to do your best to deposit enough in order to max out bonuses. For information on some of the top bonuses available to USA players, see our page: Sportsbook Bonus Offers.

Sports Betting Tip #7 Manage Your Bankroll

A serious sports bettor, betting as a source of profit, never risks more than 5% of his bankroll on any game, and generally will have an average bet size about 1.5% of the bankroll. The size of the bet is determined by expectation. On where the edge is large, the bet might be 2-5% of bankroll, but on more than 70% of bets made, the bet size is about 1% of bankroll.

Never get into any type of betting system that requires you to change your bet size based on the results of a previous bet (see wiki entry Martingale Betting System). Poor bankroll management is the number one reason that most lose when sports betting.

For more sports betting tips, see our page Sports Betting Strategy.